Freight markets in 2025 were influenced by trade policy disruptions, capacity imbalances, and shifting trade lanes, shaping a nuanced outlook for 2026.
Ocean Freight
In ocean freight in 2025, U.S. tariff uncertainty affected traditional seasonality, leading to earlier import activity and weaker volumes later in the year, while global container growth continued as China redirected exports toward non-U.S. markets. Fleet expansion kept capacity ample and rates generally subdued despite ongoing Red Sea diversions. A potential return to Suez transits in 2026 could cause short-term congestion and some rate variability, adding additional pressure on pricing.
Air Freight
In 2025, air freight volumes remained relatively steady despite de minimis restrictions and changes in trade policy, with demand gradually shifting from transpacific lanes to Asia-Europe, intra-Asia, and Southeast Asia exports. Carriers’ ability to adjust capacity helped keep rates stable, and moderate global growth is expected to continue into 2026, although policy uncertainty and capacity management remain important factors.
In the near term, trans-Pacific and other major east-west ocean container rates out of Asia are trending higher as shippers move cargo ahead of the Lunar New Year, supported by longer transit times due to Red Sea diversions. Rates to the U.S. West and East Coasts have also risen following recent general rate adjustments. Ongoing security concerns in the Red Sea, higher carrier costs, and capacity management continue to contribute to upward pressure on prices, with additional increases possible closer to the holiday period.